Friday, 9 December 2022

All the key events that happened/could happen leading up to week 14

 This could be the week for the offence AND the defence in Tampa to finally click

Firstly let’s check in on Tom Brady and the offence - 

Tom Brady and the Tampa bay Offence have struggled in most games this year to the surprise of a lot of people seeing as they had on paper , one of the best looking offensive units coming in to this season but injuries to key (C) Ryan Jensen and (WR) Julio Jones have made it a slower season than the last two for Brady and his unit. 

A huge drop off from last season with only 18.1 points per game (avg) , sitting 27th in the nfl this season compared to last seasons 28.3
The run game has been another huge drop off this season with both injuries and departures playing a part in this significant collapse , Tampa bay are ranked dead last in the nfl with just 74.3 yards on the ground per game compared to last seasons 94.8

However it doesn’t get any easier for Tampa bay this week as they face the number one defence in the nfl, the 49ers with stars nick bosa and  fred warner both being huge influences on such a good defensive season to this point, both will be looking for more big plays this week.
With bosa leading the league in sacks , 10 in his last 11games, he’ll look to add more to it.It’s likely Tampa bays run game will struggle more and the pass game will take a hit with both tackles of the bucs (smith and wells) being “weak links” for the versatile bosa to target

This game feels absolutely massive for tampa bays offense as they'll look to build off a very good 4th quarter comeback with a heavy usage of the passing game against new orleans in week 13 , however the run game didnt get going in that game either and at this point in the season it could be make or break for the bucs down the stretch

One stat the bucs quarterback will intend to keep up is not losing to a rookie quarterback since 2013 when he lost to then jets starter Geno Smith , you might be wondering who tom brady is facing this week? None other than mr irrelevant Brock Purdy , the last pick in this years NFL draft will get his first start with Jimmy G out and obviously trey lance still injured

Offensive prediction
TB12 - 280 yards , 23/42 , 2 TD 1 int 
Mike evans - 45 yards , 1 TD
Chris Godwin -107 yards , 1 TD 
Cade Otton - 28 yards 
Rachaad white 12 rec yards , 88 rush yards , 1 rush TD
Julio Jones - 58 yards 

Now time to see how the defence faired to this point and what could help them win their battle against the rookie 

The bucs defence are a very confusing unit this year , being top 5 in points against but something just feels off this year. You can pin it to injuries of key players , lack of effort,departures of some or just plain “strangeness”. With that said since the bye week the bucs defense have definitely looked a lot better only allowing 19.5 ppg but the worry is they cannot force turnovers , forcing only 11 this season , but only 2 in the last 8 games and in all likelihood if they want to beat San Francisco, it’s going to be through a strong defensive showing.

The bucs this week will be hoping for just as good a a defensive showing as the one against NOLA where they only allowed 16 points , only 1 touchdown. This week is absolutely perfect for the bucs defense , yes they might be facing a top offense but do not forget they are facing a rookie quarterback in his first career game and how do you beat that? Pressure pressure and more pressure, and what’s Tampa bays defensive strategy , pressure in blitz. This will force brock Purdy to either run the ball a lot OR force passes downfield and possibly end up in turnovers , both scenarios become ideal for the bucs as they have one of the best run defences with only 92.5 ypg, only the Steelers and ravens have allowed less. So the bucs will be hoping to either swallow Elijah Mitchell out of the backfield or force sacks or picks downfield. Either way they’ll look to beat a good offense with pressure in numbers this week.  

Key inactive players  or returning players this week for Tampa 

Bucs key special teamer Kj Britt was removed from IR this week opening a 21 day window for his return and there is a fair chance we will see him out there this week, doubtful players are DB's Mike Edwards , SMB and Antoine winfield ,Edwards and Winfield did not participate while SMB was listed as limited. Coach bowles said he would re evaluate the 3 on saturday. Tristan wirfs is definitely out again this week. Cameron Brate will likely also return as he was listed as full practice but DT Vita Vea and RB Leonard Fournette were both listed as limited too, both are still likely to play

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